Despite sanctions, Russia will likely continue to have a steady supply of essentials to continue the war in Ukraine. While sanctions block Russia from purchasing key elements to produce high-tech gear, its two main allies - Iran and North Korea - and its infrastructure will continue to produce most of the equipment needed to sustain a long war in Ukraine.

What Can Russia be Self-Sufficient With?

Besides some advanced electronic components they lack, Russia is currently self-sufficient when it comes to Main Battle Tanks (MBT). They can also produce all sorts of small arms, ammunition, artillery pieces, and projectiles. Russia also has a limited ability to produce advanced propulsion and engineered components.

What is Russia Lacking at the Moment?

One of Russia's weak spots is micro-electronics and machine tool technologies, which will significantly affect its capability to produce high-tech weaponry (cruise missiles, comms equipment, airplanes, guidance systems, UAVs, etc.).

Also, Russia will not be able to replace imports of specific European imported aircraft components and fire-control systems.

What can Russia Import?

NORTH KOREA

North Korea's military-industrial complex (MIC) has a well above-average military production capacity, and while most of its products are technologically dated, they can all be produced in mass. In the past, it has sold large amounts of ammunition to Syria, Iran, Myanmar, and Hezbollah.

It is estimated that the nation has around 180 arms factories (and 115 civilian factories with wartime material production capabilities), of which 40 are small arms factories, 10 are armored vehicle factories, and 50 are munitions factories. Other factories also produce aircraft parts, missiles, electronics, and explosives.

According to Global Security Org, North Korea's MIC produces around 3,000 guns of caliber above 100 mm, 200,000 automatic small arms, 1,530 mortars, 22 tanks, and 400 light armored vehicles. Additionally, missile facilities can produce as many as up to eight long-range ballistic missiles. Its aviation industry also produces spare parts for MiG-23s, MiG-29s, and Su-25s.

Apart from factories producing ammunition for small arms and machine guns, North Korea also possesses massive stockpiles of low-tech artillery and rocket systems compatible with Russia's current arsenal. Among these, the most significant are Katyusha rockets and 155mm or 122mm artillery shells.

Even though Russia is more than capable of producing these, North Korean ammunition imports provide a cheap alternative and additional aid to Russia's supply chain so the country can use safe its stockpiles for major offensives or emergencies.

What else can North Korea Send to Russia?

In the past, it sold tactical air navigation systems (something Russia will start to produce due to a lack of micro-electronic imports), ballistic missile components, and surface-to-air missiles.

North Korea produces MBT (Chonma-ho and Pokpung-ho), artillery pieces, multi-stage rockets, and guided missiles. Additionally, even though North Korea does not build airplanes, it does have components for soviet designs. Also, they produce Russian-licensed anti-tank missile systems like the Igla-1, Malyutka, Fagot, and Strela-2M.

Of note: While anything North Korea produces is of considerably lower quality, Russia can take advantage of the North's proximity to Russia, infrastructure, workforce, and resources to bring up production levels and go around sanctions.

IRAN

While North Korea can supply essential gear and ammunition, Iran appears to be Russia's leading wartime supplier of surface-to-surface missiles and cheap drones. Most notably, these include Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 drones, but might also be in the future Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar mobile short-range ballistic missiles.

Additionally, Iran has become quite skillful in overhauling soviet and American designs and building indigenous weapons systems regardless of sanctions. Today, Iran has produced indigenously tanks, armored vehicles, airplanes, helicopters, radar systems, cruise, and air-to-air missiles, antitank missiles, air defense weapons, ships, rocket artillery, and more. Iran's main contains are its mass-production capabilities.

What else can Iran Send to Russia?

In the 90s, Iran became committed to self-sufficiency in terms of armament. By then, the nation already had over 240 factories and other privately owned smaller industries producing weapons and parts.

Thanks to international sanctions, Iran is now almost self-sufficient in producing small arms, armor, artillery, mortars, mines, multiple rocket launchers, ammunition, and some naval systems; all things Russia will likely need in a prolonged conflict.

Iran is also almost self-sufficient in producing spare parts for aircraft, of which many are soviet designs still in use by Russia. The country produces around 14,000 aircraft parts, accounting for about 90% of its spare parts requirements for its army aviation wing.

While most of these are currently not needed (except by UAVs and missiles) in Russia's MIC, Moscow will soon take advantage of Iran's infrastructure and self-reliance to produce key parts for its armed forces that can't be currently produced in Russia.

BELARUS

Belarus and Iran have, in the last years, developed a growing cooperation in their defense industries. With US sanctions, Iran struggled to find the tech needed to develop indigenous ballistic and cruise missiles, so it partnered up with Belarus to receive military technology in exchange for oil, nuclear, and energy infrastructure

During Soviet times, Belarus was the leading supplier of sighting devices for tanks, APCs, IFV, and optical fire control systems, as well as radio-electronic and optoelectronic equipment (used in ballistic and cruise missile guidance systems) to the USSR.

Once the USSR collapsed, Belarus managed to maintain and upgrade the infrastructure which produced these products and thus became, for a while, the 20th largest exporter of relatively modern equipment (directly competing with Ukraine's arms sales). Some of its main buyers are Syria, Iraq, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Sudan.

Since the USSR collapsed, Belarus has further developed its production of indigenous military equipment, electronics, and communication systems. Some of its main sales consist of:

• Microelectronic components (produced by OJSC Integral) Optical and mechanical and optoelectronic equipment (OJSC Peleng) Precision weapons components and research Components for guidance systems Navigation systems Optoelectronic equipment Components for military equipment Army trucks Onboard equipment for the Su-27 and MiG-29

And while Russia can produce all of these in larger quantities, relying on its allies frees up its infrastructure to produce other war materials. This helps Russia create a stockpile for future offensives or focus its MIC on developing parts and products it can't currently manufacture.

 END OF REPORT