War correspondence can be hard to divide between propaganda and factual news. Based on what we asses as unbiased reporting, Ukraine seems to be losing the war.

CURRENT FACTORS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT

Based on the latest OSINT reporting, there is a chance that Ukraine will not be able to gain a strategic victory for the following reasons:

• Long-range Russian missile artillery has crippled Ukraine's defense infrastructure and its capacity to win a war of attrition

  • Even though Ukraine seems to be also employing effective long-range artillery, like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), it is only a matter of time until Russian air defense units adopt new TTP to counter them.
• Some donated equipment to Ukraine is becoming unserviceable as the war progresses due to a lack of supply of parts and a lack of maintainers familiar with each new piece of gear.

• Despite Russia being on the offensive, their use of artillery and overwhelming numbers put Russian and Ukrainian casualty rates at parity.

  • Ukraine is losing men at an unsustainable rate, and its newest recruits lack equipment and training.
• A shortage of skilled infantry and armored operators limits Ukraine's offensive capabilities.
• Russian numerical superior forces have hindered Ukraine's ability to recapture and hold occupied territory (even after a successful counterattack)
• Ukraine's most experienced and elite forces, located on the Donbas, continue to be at risk of encirclement by Russia. The elimination of these forces would likely mean a partial Ukrainian defeat.

THE COMING OF WINTER

There is a chance that the fall and winter will play in Russia's favor, giving them time to pause primary offensive operations, rotate troops, and increase energy revenues. During winter, Russia significantly increases its energy exports, and even though gas and oil production has decreased, export revenues have increased.

Still, it is unclear how long Russia will be able to maintain its operational tempo significantly as its equipment and ammo reserves decrease and sanctions block the importations of key technologies to replace gear.

THE WEST'S SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

It is unclear if Ukraine will win the upper hand in the long term. A more prolonged war will strain Russia's economy and arsenals (which will be harder to replace due to sanctions) but will further complicate Ukraine's manpower issues and could even decrease international arms shipments. Democracies like the US and UK frequently shift focus on emerging threats like Iran, China, and the DPRK.

ASSESSMENT

• It is unclear if long-term trends will favor Ukraine or Russia. The longer the war progresses, the West will LIKELY decrease weapons shipment to Ukraine as new international threats arise. At the same time, Russia will struggle to replace its lost arsenal.
• On The short to medium term, Russia will LIKELY take advantage of the winter to give its troops time to replenish and entrench themselves in occupied territory.

END OF REPORT

Top Image Credit: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Middle Image Credit: Viewsridge, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons